14.10.2019, nur in Englisch verfügbar
There is little chance of a price increase
The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:
- BRENT oil price 59.10 USD/barrel, dropping prices
- EUR/USD: 1.1042, after a low point slightly strengthening Euro
- NAPHTHA (European): 484.13 USD/t, decreasing prices
- October contract monomer prices:
- Ethylene (C2) contract price +20 EUR / t (990 EUR / t),
- Ethylene (C3) contract price +10 EUR / t (870 EUR / t),
- Styrene monomer (SM) contract price -21 EUR/t (1,065 EUR/t),
- Only partially successful price increase,
- Until the end of October in force majeure at the PP4 plant of MOL Petrochemical Ltd.
The producers tried to raise the price, but buyers resisted. Thus, there was no real price increase for either polyethylene or polypropylene. Western European polyethylene producers have already started rollover. Some Central European producers have tried to raise prices. Partially successfully. Small and medium-sized customers with few contacts were forced to accept the increased prices. However, better-informed and larger buyers were able to buy at the September price level. Meanwhile, due to moderate demand, regional producers have also retreated. In the case of polypropylene, many relied on MOL Petchem force majeure as a price booster. However, for the time being, this event does not seem to have created scarcity, it has only reduced oversupply. However, it is important to note that the PP plant with a capacity of 180 kt /year in Tiszaújváros is expected to restart at the end of October, and the full production cycle is expected to end at the end of November. Thus, some PPH and PPC grades are likely to be of short supply. However, there will generally be enough polypropylene on the market for the remainder of 2019. Prices are, and are expected to be, driven by demand by the end of December, which is rather subdued. There is a general perception and it is very likely that prices will not rise until the end of the year. Accordingly, converters began to reduce their high stocks of raw materials. In many cases, this also results in converters ‘letting go of´ the possibility of entering the higher bonus band. This also means that the usual bonus maximizing shopping spree may fall short in December. Which could cause year-end price drops. Many people are expecting the "K" exhibition opening this week to purchase and buy cheaply. So we are expecting two very weak 2 weeks in terms of demand.
The demand for polystyrene is increasing. Prices are still at record low, demand is better than September, sellers are starting to be optimistic. And they are expecting a similar one in the first half of November.
LDPE prices were in a range of 930-1,040 €/t last week. The cheapest prices in the southern region are in the range of 930-1,000 € / t. In the central region, typical prices range from 960 to 1,020 €/t. While in Poland typical prices are between 950-1,040 € / t. Demand was subdued everywhere. The supply is wide despite the fact that the Romanian producer is temporarily out of production but has stocks. Weak demand and unchanged prices are expected in the second half of October.
Typical HDPE prices were in a range of 940 - 1,110 €/t in Central Europe last week. The supply is good, with more and more offers coming from traders for North American materials. For the time being, due to the strong dollar, they are not very competitive, with prices typically in the price range of 940-1,000 €/t. Some bimodal HDPE Film and BM grades still have temporary shortages. The price increase was only partially passed through, it was mainly accepted by smaller and contracted buyers.
Typical HDPE BM list prices in Central Europe were in a range of 940-1,080 €/t last week. As the upper end of the price range has increased compared to September. Thus, it was able to pull average prices slightly along. Most transactions were made in a price range of 970-1,040 €/t.
Typical HDPE IM prices were in a range of 970 - 1,070 €/t in Central Europe. They did not change compared to last week.
HDPE Film grade prices were in a range of 940-1,110 €/t in Central-Europe last week. Due to the lack of demand, the expected price increase did not take place in the southern region either. And no change is expected in the second half of October.
Typical HDPE (100) prices were in a range of 1,220-1,300 €/t last week. Prices have not changed. However, in the southern region, non-European import grades are available at prices below € 1,200. The quantity is not large and does not affect the average price level. Demand is good and supply is good, balanced.
The typical LLDPE C4 prices were in a range of 940-1,020 €/t last week, depending on the grade and application area. The lowest prices in the southern region were in Romania, in a range of 940-990 €/t. The supply is good, expanding.
mLLDPE (C6) prices were in a range of 1,050-1,220 €/t last week. There was no change compared to last week. Practically roll-over happened. Most transactions happened in the range of 1,085-1,165 €/t.
Typical PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 960-1,080 €/t. Cheapest prices are in the southern region, in Romania. However, a slight increase of € 10-20 is expected in the second half of October. In the second half of October the expected price range will be 980-1,080 €/t. Demand and supply are in balance, even though no significant volumes of goods are coming from Russia.
The price of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index was in a range of 980-1,110 €/t. The prices of high flow index products were in the price range of 1,050-1,180 €/t. The price increase did not essentially go through. Now, however, the cheapest producers are also trying to catch up with their prices. In the second half of October, a slight increase of EUR 10-15 is expected in the cheapest segments.
Typical prices PPC prices ranged from 1,100 to 1,240 €/t in Central Europe. The price band has widened. The cheapest are still Western European producers whose spot sales are the bottom of the price range. Surprisingly, Central European producers are responsible for the top of the price range.
PPR prices were in the range of 1,150-1,280 €/t. The price increase has only partially passed through. Demand is moderate and in balance with supply.
The typical prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):
||Typical polymer price ranges in the second week of October 2019, Central Europe (€/ton)|
|HDPE blow molding
|HDPE injection molding
|HDPE pipe (100)
|LDPE general purpose
|PP co-polymer injection molding
|PP homo-polymer fiber
|PP homo-polymer injection molding
Typical EPS prices were in a range of 1,150-1,200 €/t last week. In addition to falling prices, demand also picked up. Still, the season seems to come alive in October and if the weather permits, it will continue in November. Last week, EPS producers sold most of their October production.
Typical GPPS prices were in a range of 1,140-1,220 €/t, while HIPS prices were in a range of 1,195-1,310 €/t . Demand for GPPS has picked up. There are few non-European imports on the market. However, import shipments from the Middle East are expected to cost around € 1,100 or even slightly below.
ABS prices were in the price range of € 1,430-1,590 last week. Prices have fallen by € 15-20. Demand is low.
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