15.10.2018, nur in Englisch verfügbar
Demand as usual in the season and guesswork,
The following factors influenced “commodity” polymer prices and price expectations last week:
- BRENT oil price 80.26 USD/barrel, increasing prices,
- EUR/USD: 1.1558, EURO getting weaker
- NAPHTHA: 676.895 USD/t, decreasing prices
- average demand, in line with the season,
- Some specific grades happen to be short of supply, yet maintenance activities cause no supply problems.
Ongoing and expected maintenance activities in Central-Europe
Both the PE and PP plant of Unipetrol are expected to restart this Monday (they did not restart last week).
In addition supply is getting short also due to the shutdowns in WE. Compared to the last week oil and naphtha prices turned back, this curbed price increase expectations. Last week the demand was in line with the season, or slightly lower. Most buyers are rather guessing as to November. In the southern region some major PPC converters tried to buy in advance, first of all due to the supply getting shorter and the price increase expectations. But this is not typical in the whole CE region.
The fall season slowly comes to an end and the inventory levels of converters are low. But from the second half of November bonus maximizing purchases might be a driving force of demand. In the meantime polymer producers anticipate slightly increasing olefin monomer prices, and converters expect rather slightly dropping prices.
The LDPE market did not change compared to last week. The typical price range was 1,060-1,140 €/t last week. This will probably not change until the end of October.
HDPE demand is still good, while supply is short. But the expected restart of Unipetrol on Monday will balance the market first of all in case of IM and BM grades. The typical CE price range is 1,200-1,260 €/t.
HDPE (100) started dropping last week. The end of the season is seemingly at hand. In case of direct buys from the producer the typical price range is 1,350-1,450 €/t, depending on the size and location of the buyer.
The typical prices of LLDPE C4 did not change either, they were in a range of 1,080 and 1,150 €/t last week. Demand is good and in line with the season.
mLLDPE prices were in a range of 1,260-1,400 €/t last week. There is an average demand, in line with the season. Supply is abundant, rather oversupply is typical.
PPH market is stable. In spite of the shutdowns there was a temporary shortage in case of some grades only. There were temporary supply problems in the southern region only. FCA prices are in a range of 1,170-1,190 €. There seems to be no reason for concern, the expected restart of Unipetrol will compensate the shutdown of the PP plant of Slovnaft. Producers seem to have prepared well the shutdowns, in this way no major supply shortage is to be expected. PPH Raffia prices were in a range of 1,190-1,240 €. The price of non-special PPM IM products with medium melt index is: in a range of 1,210-1,260, while that of products with high melt index starts from 1,250 €.
There is no change on the PPC market. In the direct polymer producer and plastic converter relations a price level higher than 1,300 € is typical. On the free market (via traders) substitute grades are to have at prices starting from 1,250 €. Typical prices of non-special grades were in a range of 1,280-1,400 €/t in Central-Europe last week.
In case of PPR, compared to September there was roll-over, the demand is stable, in line with the season. The price range was 1,320-1,460 €/t, depending on the grade, producer and application area last week.
The prices of the last week are presented in the table below (full truck load 20-22.5 t):
||Typical polymer price ranges in the second week of Oct, 2018, Central Europe (€/ton)|
|HDPE blow molding
|HDPE injection molding
|HDPE pipe (100)
|LDPE general purpose
|PP co-polymer injection molding
|PP homo-polymer fiber
|PP homo-polymer injection molding
EPS demand was good, in line with the season last week. High demand arrived at last also in Hungary. Due to the good demand market prices decreased by 50-65 €, not reaching the full monomer price decrease. Typical prices are in a range of 1,500-1,650 €/t.
The demand for GPPS and HIPS is still weak. The full monomer price reduction was accepted on the market. Converters are waiting for further monomer and polymer price decrease in November and December as well. The price range of imported GPPS is 1,380-1,420 € and in case of HIPS prices are in a range of 1,400-1,450 €/t. Last week the price range of GPPS produced in Europe was 1,450- 1,560 €, while the range of HIPS prices was 1,550-1,650 € depending on the grade and application area.
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