Market Report Plastics - November 2013
Information about the market for plastics is being presented by:
bvse - Bundesverband Sekundärrohstoffe und Entsorgung e.V.
1. The market for primary plastics
Rising exports, more jobs, higher investment: confidence in the German economy is growing, cf. the news published by the Bavarian radio station Bayerischer Rundfunk on 21 October 2013, 1 pm. The economic previews for Germany are favourable throughout for 2014. Nevertheless, the economic upswing seems to be more and more delayed. There is still a lack of decisive impulses for the German and European economies.
The K 2013 set a positive trend for the plastics industry in Dόsseldorf, cf. the final press release relating to the K 2103: the high expectations regarding the K 2013 were exceeded. The exhibitors expect that there will be considerable follow-up business to the fair. There were good reasons why their hopes in the success of the trade fair and in brisk follow-up business should have been aroused: the industry-related economic situation had been undergoing an upward trend for several months, and companies were confident that they would be able to present groundbreaking product innovations for all sectors of the value chain. The exhibitors unanimously reported on a high number of concrete project requests, intense negotiations with trade fair visitors from across the world and on a remarkable number of business transactions.
Standard plastics: The price rises in standard plastics indicated by EUWID in September did not hold their own in October. While standard plastics prices increased by 60 /t from August to September, they fell by 56 /t again in October. Hence, the processors' hopes for declining plastics prices were met. The price increase in polystyrene, attaining 90 /t, was above average in September; on the other hand, there was an equally significant price decrease of 80 /t in October. In October demand for standard plastics was very restrained. Processors have been making purchases with some hesitancy in October and November. There is a considerable supply of plastics in the markets. The quotes for mineral oil are declining just as much as the precursor prices. All this could lead to another price slump in standard plastics in November. Plastics producers are planning to reduce production in November and December.
Table 1: Standard plastics prices listed by EUWID over the past four months; prices quoted in /t.
Technical plastics: Technical plastics markets have proved to be stable according to the bimonthly listings published by EUWID for 2013. True, the average quote has fallen by 27 /t; however, this decrease is still within the normal fluctuation margin. The supply of technical plastics is accompanied by stable to slightly restrained demand, too.
Table 2: Technical plastics prices as published by EUWID over the past six months; prices quoted in /t.
2. The market for secondary plastics
Secondary plastics markets continue to be relatively static. Bale good prices have been declining, whereas recyclate prices have remained relatively stable. As a result of the continuing Green Fence Action, the German market has now been flooded with large quantities of bale goods that can no longer be exported to the People's Republic of China. However, a large proportion of these goods are put into storage - in the hope that Green Fence will soon come to an end. For the most part, these export goods do not meet the European plastics producers' quality standards.
And this takes us to the topic at hand. The Green Fence Action is scheduled to end on 30th November 2013, but beware: for the time being, this does not mean that the waste plastics set aside can from now on be imported to the People's Republic of China without having to undergo any additional border controls. The import regulations are going to change, the quantities of materials that can be delivered to the People's Republic of China are going to increase; however, for the time being this certainly does not apply to those used plastics that are contaminated with a large proportion of residues. Goods imported to the People's Republic of China are still subject to checks to ensure that the proportion of residues is low. The Chinese New Years' celebrations, during which there are public holidays, take place from 31st January to 2nd February 2014. From mid-January the demand for imports to China is expected to be low.
The EUWID magazine shows that standard plastics prices for October 2013 fell in numerous cases relative to the previous month - albeit only to a slight extent. According to EUWID, the price decreases ranged between 3 /t and 25 /t. However, a considerable number of quotes have held their own. The plasticker internet platform indicates price rises of 17 /t on average. In total, the amount of waste material on the markets has increased, which is having a price-reducing effect on the EUWID listings. According to plasticker, however, the proportion of recyclates is slightly pushing up prices. According to both price indices, the changes have ultimately been minimal.
2.1 EUWID Price Watch
The price rises that occurred last month have been reversed. The standard plastics price quoted in the EUWID Price Watch for used plastics has fallen by 3 /t to 10 /t for the majority of quality grades.
In the case of post-industrial PE, the average price falls amount to 7 /t. Only the quote for LDPE film grade natural has risen by 30 /t in the upper price segment. Hence, the quotes for the following quality grades have changed: HDPE mixed colours 470 - 640 /t, LDPE mixed colours 470 - 600 /t, LDPE film grade natural (K49) 220 - 320 /t and LDPE film grade natural (K40) 460 - 590 /t. Only the following two types of post-user PE are reported to have changed: film transparent natural < 70 m 400 - 440 /t, the price of which has fallen by 8 /t on average, and mixed film (80/20) 240 - 270 /t, whose price has fallen by 5 /t on average.
Post-industrial PP: Prices have fallen by 6 /t on average; hence, the quotes for the following quality grades have decreased: film mixed colours (K59) 120 - 290 /t, homopolymer natural 630 - 790 /t and copolymer natural 630 - 790 /t. PP film prices, which have fallen by 25 /t, have decreased more significantly than the other PP and PE quality grades .
Post-industrial PS: The price rises in PS have not been reversed. PS has remained unchanged compared to the previous month. PS processing materials and PS recyclates continue to be in demand.
PVC: The PVC price, too, has fallen only minimally. The average price decrease in post-industrial PVC only amounts to 3 /t on average. The following prices are now listed: PVC_P transparent 410 - 480 /t and PVC_P mixed colours 320 - 440 /t. The price rises in PVC_U and tube grade that occurred in the previous months have remained unchanged. In the case of PVC window frame regrind the quote for the quality grade "white" has fallen by 10 /t in the upper price segment, i.e. it is now quoted at 630 - 730 /t.
The PET market: On the whole, the PET market is characterised by excess supply at all levels. There is still considerable supply of bale goods, even though the demand for beverages has fallen in autumn and winter due to seasonal influences. Recyclers still have a sufficient supply of recyclates on offer, and even the PET virgin material prices, too, fell by 30 /t in October. The situation in the PET market is precarious. PET recyclers are putting this down to a longer winter break. There is a conspicuous difference in respect to the listings for the previous year. For instance, the quotes for PET have now fallen significantly, namely by 90 /t, while those for PET mixed colours have decreased by 95 /t. According to EUWID, the price of PET transparent decreased by 30 /t, while the quote for PET coloured fell by 40 /t compared to the previous month. The following new prices are thus listed: PET transparent 260 - 300 /t and PET coloured 80 - 120 /t.
2.2 plasticker price index
The plasticker internet platform publishes quotes on an hourly basis. However, the present market report shows the final monthly prices. The preliminary quotes previously accumulated are only represented during the reporting month in question, in this case for November 2013 - these quotes merely reflect an interim situation that does not become definitive until the following month.
Standard plastics
In October the quotes for standard plastics were inconsistent. The October listings increased by 17 /t relative to September; price rises ranged from 10 /t to 150 t, while prices fell by 20 /t to 60/t. In October, the prices of several types of plastics varied significantly. Demand increased slightly relative to the previous months; however, this does not yet indicate a trend reversal.
Since August 2013 PS regranulates have been subject to amazingly wild fluctuations. Having bottomed out in July 2013 at 840 /t, HDPE regranulates is now attaining record prices of 1060 /t. LDPE bale goods attained 280 /t in October 2013 compared to 160 /t in October 2012. On the whole, the prices of PET bale goods and regrind have shown a continuous trend toward decline over the past 12 months. According to plasticker, the following quotes changed by more than +/- 40 /t in October relative to the previous month: HDPE regranulates +50 /t, LDPE regranulates -60 /t, PS regranulates +150 /t and PVC_P regrind +60 /t.
The first preview of the November quotes, whose final listings cannot be published until December, indicates an average price of 638 /t. Thus, the plasticker internet platform indicated price stability with respect to standard plastics on 13th November 2013. To date, there has been restrained demand in November.
Table 3: Standard plastics prices according to plasticker, quoted in /t.
*: Supply figures too low to attain statistical significance; 1: equivalent to the grade "post-industrial, mixed colours"; 2: equivalent to K49; 3: equivalent to K59; 4: equivalent to "standard, mixed colours"; 5: equivalent to the grade "regranulates, black", 6: forecast (may be amended by additional quotes)
Technical plastics
In total, technical plastics were quoted at slightly higher prices in October; however, they differ very much according to the type of plastic. The October prices exceeded those attained in September by 44 /t. Price rises ranged from 30 /t to 240 /t, while prices fell by 20 /t to 90 /t. According to plasticker the following prices changed by more than +/- 70 /t in October: ABS regranulates +240 /t, PBT regrind -80 /t, PBT regranulates +190 /t, PA 6.6 regranulates +160 /t and POM regranulates -90 /t. In October the demand for technical plastics increased. The price bottom reached in the summer months has been overcome. The price rises in regranulates are more significant than those in regrind. However, the POM price has been continuously declining since June 2013, when it was quoted at 1560 /t; in November it has been quoted at only 1360 /t. Having bottomed out at 1220 /t in September, ABS regranulate prices have been continuously rising in November 2013, reaching 1530 /t.
The first preview of the November quotes, whose final listings cannot be published until early December, shows that the average price will probably attain 1407 /t. Thus, plastics prices are likely to hold their own. To date, the November demand for technical plastics has been satisfactory.
Table 4: Technical plastics prices according to plasticker, quoted in /t
5: equivalent to the grade "regranulates, black". 6 forecast (may be amended by additional quotes)
No guarantee for any of the prices. All EUWID prices are quoted ex works. As a rule, the prices quoted refer to quantities in excess of 20 tons. The monthly quotes for secondary plastics, which are updated on an hourly basis, can be calculated using the price lists that are derived from the quotations published in the raw material exchange plasticker. The prices listed in this index are quoted with reservation - as the majority of the quotes submitted are not necessarily equivalent to the sales prices. Furthermore, plasticker does not distinguish between the following grades: transparent, mixed colours or colour-separated. Therefore, the information provided by plasticker may indicate different market behaviour than the prices quoted by EUWID. Plasticker offers the quality grades regrind and regranulates in the form of both virgin materials and secondary materials.
