2014-01-13, 15:54 |
Prices for sequential products in the European PA6 chain: The price of PA6 polymer is now back to where it was in 2006/2007, but the build-up of the cost structure is entirely different – especially the caprolactam producers have had to give up some of their margins and are now in a very precarious position. Illustration: PCI Nylon The global polyamide industry is currently undergoing a massive investment wave which is set to continue in 2014. This new capacity – essentially all of it in China – is forcing the rest of the industry to rethink their plans and consider their options. For the last decade, European producers have been able to grow their polyamide (nylon) businesses by selling ever-growing quantities of intermediates and polymers to Asia in general and China specifically. As China becomes self-sufficient in all these materials, these export opportunities are fading fast and producers are turning back to their domestic markets in search of alternatives. But with everyone in the same situation the result is over-capacity and increasing competition. Against this threatening backdrop, PCI Nylon, the market research and consultancy firm based in Oberursel/Germany, will be hosting the 8th annual “European Nylon Symposium” in Frankfurt/Main on 26th and 27th February 2014. This event is going to consider all of the key questions: Will China really become self-sufficient? If so, when? What effect will this have on the European polyamide supply base? Is the current situation sustainable? If not, what happens next? Although the actual market situation should be a benefit to polyamide buyers, in reality over-capacity at the steps further down the polyamide chain is causing this advantage to be bid away as players compete for market share. The net result is therefore that value is leaking out of the PA chain. For example, the price of PA6 polymer is now back to where it was in 2006/2007, but the build-up of the cost structure is entirely different (see illustration): Back in 2006 the crude oil price was USD 61 per barrel and it represented around 18% of the total cost of PA6 polymer. Currently oil is at USD 108 per barrel and it now represents 28% of the cost. While some stages in the chain have been able to pass these increased costs on, others have been less successful and have had to give up some of their margins. The worst affected have been the caprolactam producers who, after a record year in 2011, have now been pushed all the way back to breakeven. With profitability already destroyed, and the outlook for further contractions in their export business to Asia, the European caprolactam producers are now in a very precarious position indeed. And they are not alone. Over-capacity in PA6 polymer and many downstream markets is leading to increased price pressure in these areas, too. The European Nylon Symposium 2014 is going to cover all aspects of the polyamide chain, from raw materials through intermediates to all the main demand areas (engineering plastics, carpet, industrial filament and textile fibres) with the goal of providing attendees with the latest data and sharpest analysis about what is happening in the industry. The complete programme of this one and a half day event, held at the Hilton Frankfurt, can be downloaded from www.pcinylon.com under the category "symposia", where an online registration form can be found as well. Presentation language is English. The American Nylon Symposium, which is also hosted by PCI Nylon, will take place on 27th and 28th March 2014 in Atlanta, Georgia. In analogy to its European counterpart, this symposium will examine the global PA scenario with an American focus. About PCI Nylon PCI Nylon is a specialty market research and consulting company focusing on all aspects of the polyamide process chain in the global marketplace, from petrochemical raw materials through intermediates to PA end-use products. To this end, the company regularly publishes commented market surveys such as the annual global PA6 and PA66 report (Yellowbook), which has evolved into a standard reference work, and the monthly "Nylon Intermediates & Fibres Report". In addition, PCI Nylon produces expert´s reports according to individual criteria on a contract basis, conducts cost benchmarking of PA production facilities, and organizes annual conferences in Europe and the U.S., bringing together international experts from the polyamide industry. |
PCI Nylon, Oberursel, Germany
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